In both my U.S. European Command and my NATO “hats,” I spend a great deal of time focusing on the challenges in Afghanistan.

We’ve just seen the Afghan people complete the first round of the Presidential election. President Obama said, “”This was an important step forward in the Afghan people’s efforts to take control of their future, even as violent extremists are trying to stand in their way.” He went on to say, “We look forward to renewing our partnership with the Afghan people as they move ahead under a new government.”

Yet the situation is extremely serious. While I remain convinced that the Coalition, working with the Afghan people, will ultimately win in Afghanistan – the stakes are high – the situation is extremely challenging. The NATO Secretary General recently said, “NATO – by which I mean both sides of the Atlantic — will do its full part, but we can’t do it alone. This has to be an international team effort, military and civilian – with more effort from the Afghans themselves as well….It will not be easy, and the past month has made that bitterly clear. But it can be done. And we will do it. Let there be no doubt about that.”

After two trips to Afghanistan in the last couple of months, many hours of conversation with our superb NATO and U.S. commander there, General Stan McChrystal, discussions with academics, experts, and historians, I agree the situation is indeed serious. But, it is far from hopeless, and what we do over the next year or so will set the course.
While my own thinking is still evolving, and I am awaiting General McChrystal’s assessment, I believe there are four fundamental keys to achieving a successful outcome in Afghanistan. None is particularly new or surprising, but taken together I believe they would be extremely contributory to success:

Putting the Afghan people at the center of gravity. It is insufficient to simply kill Taliban; in fact, it can lead to the creation of what my friend and counter-terrorism expert David Kilcullen has aptly termed “accidental guerrillas,” those who take up arms in response to military action. Reducing collateral damage is key, but much more is involved, and I believe this is at the heart of General McChrystal’s approach.
 
Achieving effective balance between civil and military activities. In Afghanistan, as I have said before, security will not be achieved at gunpoint. It is a combination of economic, political, governance, medical, infrastructure, and other deliverables that is achieved by diplomats undertaking Diplomacy and development experts working on Development, even as those of us on the military side work on Defense – the 3D approach. We must work it together with interagency, international, and indeed private sector partners as part of a holistic approach.

Effective Strategic Communication. The messages must be well defined and communicated both within Afghanistan to the Afghan people; and to the nations engaged in the conflict. In both cases, a truthful, realistic antidote to the very effective negative messaging coming from the Taliban must be crafted. There is a key technical component to this as well as the need for deep expertise and understanding of culture and history, both in Afghanistan and in other nations around the world.

 Training Afghan Security Forces. There is a common expression that “all politics is local.” In fact, all security is local too in the end. We must have an effective number of trained, equipped, and organized Afghan military and police forces. General McChrystal is analyzing how big this force should be, but Afghanistan is a big country and eventually this will be “how it ends” – by training Afghans to defend and police their own nation. NATO has already taken the lead in the training of Afghan Security Forces, and their performance during the recent elections was superb.

There are certainly other elements that are key and important, including potential discussions with the so-called “reconcilable” Taliban; relations with neighboring states, notably Pakistan, and counter-narcotics work. The needs and challenges are great, but the international community – working together – has sufficient resources. The key is partnership, transparency between all actors, and timely action.

The next step, once the outcome of the elections is known, will be General McChrystal’s assessment, expected within a week or so. After the international community has a chance to digest and analyze that, we at European Command and NATO Allied Command Operations will be ready to take on political and policy guidance and move forward as part of the team engaged in this crucial mission.

Adm. James Stavridis
SACEUR and Commander EUCOM